COVID-19 probably going to get a lot worse

"MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s" (mastermario)
02/25/2020 at 08:26 • Filed to: covid19, coronavirus

With new cases of the COVID-19 virus popping up around the world it seems it will get worse before it gets better. How much worse though?

Well according to the below article there’s reason to believe 40-70% of the world will be infected within a year.

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

The problem gets amplified by the fact that this virus has an estimated 2.3% mortality rate.

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

If both of these hold true then you can expect about 3 million (yes, million) people in the US alone to die from this. (327 million people x 40% x 2.3%)

For comparison the flu virus kills well under 100,000 Americans each year.

Edit: Just going to add that while 40-70% is the estimate, that’s far from certain. And the 2.3% mortality rate is based on numbers reported from China which are probably not reliable. In other words, it could be worse than this or it could be better. Either way it’s good to be prepared and aware of the situation.

Sorry for the doom and gloom, but it’s good to stay informed. Stay safe out there oppo.

Have a Lykan Hypersport to cheer you up a bit.

DISCUSSION (59)

Nibby > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 08:48

that ugly car almost gave me COVID-19

For Sweden > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 08:57

The next American Secretary of Health and Human Services will use love and orbs to fight the disease

Kinja'd!!!

vondon302 > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 09:01

Well it’s a little slower than giant meteor but I’m not changing my vote until they debate.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 09:03

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

dtg11 - is probably on an adventure with Clifford > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 09:07

As I said to some friends the other day, I’m not too concerned at this point. Additionally with the mortality rate, it’s comparing US flu deaths to Chinese Covid deaths. I’d be curious to see what US Covid death rate is and how much lower it is.

Thomas Donohue > For Sweden
02/25/2020 at 09:14

Thoughts and prayers work better.

For Sweden > Thomas Donohue
02/25/2020 at 09:15

Same energy

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > For Sweden
02/25/2020 at 09:19

Only after the current one figures out how to help his pharmaceutical pals profit off of it.

Wacko > Thomas Donohue
02/25/2020 at 09:21

Not in the last 3 years they haven’t

TheTurbochargedSquirrel > dtg11 - is probably on an adventure with Clifford
02/25/2020 at 09:24

I don’t think anyone has died of Covid in the US. We have only had a handful of cases here so far.

DipodomysDeserti > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 09:26

For one, 40-70% is a pretty broad estimate, indicating that whoever cane up with it was not conducting a very precise study. Secondly, 40-70% of the world’s population becoming infected does not translate to 40-70% of the US population becoming infected. The virus originated in China, which already contains just under 20% of the world’s population, so most of that “40-70%” is going to be in China. The US also has a much harder border than pretty much every other free nation in the world, so it’s much less likely to spread here like it might in other places.

Three million deaths in the US is a laughable, fear mongering figure. To give you an idea, cardiovascular disease has been the leading cause of death in the US for quite a while now, and it kills 600-800 thousand people every year.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > dtg11 - is probably on an adventure with Clifford
02/25/2020 at 09:27

The mortality rate is the one big unknown. I don’t know that we can trust the numbers coming from China which are what that study is based on.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 09:27

My brother and his family live in Shanghai. They left a few weeks ago and self-quarantined (under the supervision of the state of Texas - had to send them their temperatures twice a day) for 14 days in Austin. We’ll see if the U.S. and other modern nations can keep cases from spreading. A serious challenge, for sure.

Related: I might end up losing my job in some part related to all this.

Bo Knows > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 09:32

But will it kill the right people and improve my commute??

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > DipodomysDeserti
02/25/2020 at 09:34

I think you’re being a little too optimistic. 40% -70% infection is going to be pretty evenly spread within the infected populations. If it gets a hold in the US, what makes you think we will do any better than China at containing it? While the US may have harder borders to invade it is probably one of the most visited countries in the world between business and vacation travel. The difficult part with this virus is the incubation period is so long. You could get infected and be home for weeks before showing symptoms or you could just never show symptoms.

https://www.sciencealert.com/researchers-confirmed-patients-can-transmit-the-coronavirus-without-showing-symptoms

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
02/25/2020 at 09:36

Related: I might end up losing my job in some part related to all this.

Oof...I hope it doesn’t come to that for you. I assume your company relies on Chinese manufacturing and this is hitting their pockets really hard right now?

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/25/2020 at 09:38

Yes to the first point...my wife shops at Costco so we always have enough to eat for at least a month.

Ammunition? Fuel? Power going out? I don’t think this will be that apocalyptic.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Bo Knows
02/25/2020 at 09:38

Sometimes, sometimes not and yes.

Ash78, voting early and often > DipodomysDeserti
02/25/2020 at 09:39

A lot of the stats are already skewed by people who were already “in the pipeline” for infection before we even knew much about it. Yes, it’s spreading, but that’s the nature of the incubation period. I think the steps already taken will slow things down a lot, but the proof of that won’t be clear for another few weeks/months.

I supposed the article is fine if it assumed we didn’t figure out what it was until several months into the epidemic. I’m not saying we just slam our borders shut, but it’s doable (for a while). Those great moats called “Atlantic” and “Pacific” have been the biggest sources of worldwide security for this country for millenia.

(Apolitical s ide fear: A mini-epidemic breaks out in rural Mexico and is covered up or undiscovered, and the economically porous border quietly passes it along to San Diego, LA, Houston, etc)

LimitedTimeOnly @ opposite-lock.com > Bo Knows
02/25/2020 at 09:40

There’s that silver lining!

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 09:51

We’re a small oil & gas company. We were already in transition, looking for a new partner/funder. Oil price had crept up to $63 and seemed to be moving upward, but then this coronavirus dropped the price 20% (and natural gas and NGL prices are already in the toilet). Just really bad timing for us, at a time when things were already tough.

Thankfully Mrs. addiction has a very good job that seems fairly stable, but she’s also in O&G... We’ve saved well, and are not extended, so we’ll be fine for a while, thankfully. Just hoping it’s only a while if things go that way!

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > DipodomysDeserti
02/25/2020 at 10:07

Counterpoint: I see people loosing their shit if the US tried to quarantine a neighborhood or town. And that doesn’t even bring in the antivaxxer plague enthusiasts

MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 10:14

This would be my luck. Traveling overseas for the first time in my life this Spring. So far, Greece hasn’t been impacted but I have to touch down in Rome before getting there.

Fuck it, going anyhow.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 10:19

Does being prepared to make me a doomsday prepper?

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
02/25/2020 at 10:19

Something about it being a ploy by the deep state to prevent them from voting for the right wing nut jobs and something about it being a ploy by Trump to prevent them from voting for the left wing nut jobs.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/25/2020 at 10:24

It depends on the scale. Being prepared to live without the support of society for a month or so is just being prepared. Being prepared for the end of civilization is doomsday prepping.

I will say I do have most of that covered (though I still need to get a solar panel to be able to charge a bank of batteries to run our well pump off of)

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > dtg11 - is probably on an adventure with Clifford
02/25/2020 at 10:25

The concern comes in if you have elderly parents or family or friends with cancer or something, but yeah, it seems like we’re keeping it pretty well in control so far in the States. The outbreak in Italy is concerning, though, especially if they can’t manage to get it contained.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/25/2020 at 10:28

2 to 4 weeks? Try 2 to 4 months (that’s how long my brother and his family were expecting to be basically stuck in their apartment in Shanghai, had they decided to stay.

This is just basic preparedness, right? No reason for there to be major power outages in this scenario.

MUSASHI66 > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/25/2020 at 10:31

My folks survived the war in Bosnia because they had stuff, so I like having stuff as well, just in case. Good ol’ “rather have it and not needed it than need it and not have it”.

But, we just moved in September and we didn’t redo the “just in case” pantry. Our yearly Costco money-back check arrived, so we might go and stock up just a bit more than what we already have in the regular pantry.

Or I might buy the Roomba to suck up all the dog hair. Haven’t decided :D

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Bo Knows
02/25/2020 at 10:31

You hate to think like this, but you do wonder if some officials in China are seeing this disease (which largely affects the aged and sick) as some kind of net positive in the long run...

https://chinapower.csis.org/aging-problem/

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner
02/25/2020 at 10:32

Yes, definitely go. If anything you might get an extra couple weeks of “forced vacation” - ha!

MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
02/25/2020 at 10:43

hahaha, sounds good to me, just trap me on Santorini

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 10:49

I think I could eke out 90 days, especially if the utilities don't fail for some weeks.

DipodomysDeserti > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 10:53

I’m assuming your “ 40-70%” figures take all that into account. Do th ey not? What study are you referencing with those figures?

DipodomysDeserti > Ash78, voting early and often
02/25/2020 at 10:55

I’m much more concerned about me or mine developing a cancer over the period of our lives than I am about contracting a corona virus. And that’s not even something I dwell on, other than trying to eat lots of vegetables and not using pesticides and herbicides.

DipodomysDeserti > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
02/25/2020 at 10:56

Americans shoot each other on a daily basis, so people losing their shit isn’t that novel of a development.

Ash78, voting early and often > DipodomysDeserti
02/25/2020 at 10:59

Yep, fear is almost all a balance between what we think we can control and what we know we can’t. Just like how driving deaths compare to flying deaths. People should be terrified of cars, but we have a sense of control over them.

WiscoProud > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 11:17

I heard on NPR that the mortality is almost entirely with the elderly. They mentioned that out of thousands of cases in China, there were only a handful of pediatric cases needing hospitalization.

Shift24 > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 11:17

While I get 2.3% is still not 100% accurate but the chances it kills 3 million US citizens is fake news level of numbers

Also if 40% of the world population is infected, the US is 4.3% of that . If you factor that in 1.7% of the US population will be infected

300 mil*1.72% is 51,600 * 2.3% is ~1200.

Also US death rates on Severe (hospitalization) illness vs death for flu is 7.5% (since 2010)

World is 13%

So its possible that number could be halved.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Shift24
02/25/2020 at 12:15

Also if 40% of the world population is infected, the US is 4.3% of that . If you factor that in 1.7% of the US population will be infected

300 mil*1.72% is 51,600 * 2.3% is ~1200.

This is not correct. If 40% of the world population is infected that is 3 billion infected . If you assume even distribution then 4.3% of 3 billion is the US infected population which is 132 million. Then you factor in the mortality rate of 2.3% and you get to 3 million. The order you do the math doesn’t change the answer.

Say we aren’t able to contain it and the US does get infected (which gets more and more likely the more this spreads) and lets say the mortality rate is over estimated and it’s actually 1% and let’s also say that in the US we have better healthcare so we get that rate down to 0.5%...you still have 660,000 deaths from this.

I’ll add an anecdotal piece of information here too. The buyers at my company who work closely with Chinese suppliers all say it’s much worse there than we are hearing.

Just because this may be a worst case scenario doesn’t mean it won’t happen or is unlikely or that the numbers are “fake news”.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > DipodomysDeserti
02/25/2020 at 12:18

No study that I’ve seen, it was more a estimate by epidemiologists which is why it is such a large range and why I used the lower end of that to calculate the numbers.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > WiscoProud
02/25/2020 at 12:30

That’s most likely the case and hopefully the truth, but I really don’t trust any numbers coming out of China. There are some highly publicized cases of young healthy people in their prime dying though too. At this point it’s really all an unknown.

facw > Shift24
02/25/2020 at 12:37

Yeah, no, math doesn’t work like that. It’s not 1.7% of the US population that will be affected, it’s 1.7% of the world population will be infected in the US (if you do things your way) . Now it’s quite possible that US will have a lower spread than the global average, and that care in the US will lead to lower fatalities, but you’re still going to see vastly more infected than what you are arguing. Everything we’ve seen from COVID-19 indicates that it is significantly more deadly than the flu, and spreads more rapidly.

WiscoProud > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 12:40

Its still a relatively new disease, they’re not entirely sure why it does what it does, or why infections in children seem to be minor. I will say that respiratory diseases in general affect the elderly worse.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/publichealth/84968

StudyStudyStudy > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 13:32

Text wall incoming:

You have to run the numbers based on mortality outside of China as you mention and factor into it the healthcare practices in the country. China for example had “health” staff indicating how they were using the best of western and eastern medicine, which raises numerous questions. Images and videos of isolating facilities are also woefully concerning.

South Korea can be seen as a better example, although culturally they also have a strong view on eastern medicine as well , their numbers are around 1000 ill with 10 confirmed deaths. That brings it closer to 1%. Granted the hospital system is also odd with private hospitals and overtly high population densities and fairly minimal health coverage, hence the call for more doctors and currently overworked staff .

The only other country to look at really is Italy, but similar to South Korea their numbers are in their infancy so hard to get a grasp of.

I know a few research groups nearby are getting fast tracked to be able to start studying the virus so that will be interesting to hear what they find first hand.

The conversation with colleagues is it will go one of two ways. It will either spread and become ubiquitous to the point it will occupy the same spot in our minds as the seasonal flu, or it will fade away like SARS and MERS with relatively minor fanfare or note.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > StudyStudyStudy
02/25/2020 at 14:15

Yea, the number from China are to be taken with a grain of salt due to the differences in care as well as the reliability of the numbers being reported. The long incubation period as well as asymptotic infections means this has a good chance of becoming ubiquitous. I don’t think any containment actions are really going to be effective like they were with SARS and MERS. Ironically, even though this is much less severe than SARS and MERS, this will be worse overall comparably because it’s less severe. People aren’t debilitated by it so they can pass the infection much easier.

As for the mortality rate, even if it turns out to be 0.5% that’s still over half a million people in the US and that’s if the infection only spreads to 40% of the population.

StudyStudyStudy > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/25/2020 at 16:00

That seems pretty alarmist in regards to the states. You have to remember that the elderly tends to live in the suburbs more spread out here versus in asian countries where apartments are the norm. The stats o nce you subdivide the mortality rate into age groups and compromised health and such paints a much different picture, I think the number drops into the single digits for those under 50 . Combine that with this being somewhat the peak of winter, as it grows warmer I imagine it will, like the common flu, die down. Factor in vaccines that have been developed and undergoing clinical trials and others in the pipe line, entertaining the maximum “ what if” scenario seems premature.

Reports from those that have recovered from confirmed cases akin it to a mild flu, worse than the common cold, but less severe than the traditional flu.

The total also seems overtly large when applied to the whole population, but if you imagine something like on facebook where you have 500 friends that would mean maybe 2 people you know may die to the outbreak if everyone is infected . Sad to say I see more than that die every year from accidents/cancer/etc.

All that said, it is good to stay informed and to upgrade your personal hygiene and health monitoring. Take this chance to update your vaccines, and get the seasonal flu shot.

Shift24 > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
02/26/2020 at 12:15

Kinja'd!!!

My own math was off a factor of 100... Convinced myself I was right, my bad

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Shift24
02/26/2020 at 12:30

lol...no worries. happens to the best of us.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
02/27/2020 at 11:55

I missed this. I threw weeks out there because I didn’t want to sound like a Prepper, though I am pretty thoroughly prepared. 2 to 4 months is a long time. If the water stays on, then I’m good for that amount of time, no problem.

In other news:

Kinja'd!!!

The timing was good, it turns out.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
02/27/2020 at 11:57

Do I place faith in the president’s men, or in the career government scientists? In this particular case, I am attempting to give myself the best possible position to sustain myself and my family.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/27/2020 at 12:13

That’s what husbands and fathers should do.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/27/2020 at 12:16

My brother and his family are in the States for the foreseeable future. No idea when they might be able to return to normal life in China.

You’re welcome!! =) Fun to be right every once in a while.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
02/27/2020 at 12:24

I ordered face-worn NIOSH N95 masks with actual cartridges, one for each member of the family plus the two husbands. And I ordered my pregnant daughter and her husband a couple of weeks worth of freeze dried food and had them go out and buy some bottled water yesterday. Paper N95 masks are in short supply and being sold at a premium.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/27/2020 at 12:27

Good man. You’re way ahead of me...

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
02/27/2020 at 12:27

I am far from imagining what sort of life “normal” in China would be.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/27/2020 at 12:33

He lives is Shanghai. It’s a big, metropolitan city. They have a nice apartment, near a park. Their kids go to a great school. He works for an NGO. They have a nice, “normal” life, only under an oppressive, Communist regime that suppresses information and free speech. If you follow the rules, which he does his best to do, the government won’t give you any trouble. Has to feel strange to always be watching what you say, though...

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
02/27/2020 at 12:49

That’s an interesting perspective to have on life. I’d be feeling much appreesh for what we have here, even for its allowance of what we have here now.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/27/2020 at 13:43

Much appreesh, for sure !

Seriously though, most don’t truly value their freedoms until they find themselves in a situation where they don’t have them anymore.